Difference between revisions of "Covid 19"
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|CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, epidemic peak is predicted in June. | |CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, epidemic peak is predicted in June. | ||
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| − | |Westerhoff and Kolodkin<ref> Westerhoff H. V., Kolodkin A.N. Advice from a systems-biology model of the Corona epidemics. medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045039}}</ref> | + | |[[Westerhoff and Kolodkin 2020 COVID19 model|Westerhoff and Kolodkin]]<ref> Westerhoff H. V., Kolodkin A.N. Advice from a systems-biology model of the Corona epidemics. medRxiv preprint 2020. {{doi|https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045039}}</ref> |
|30.03.2020 | |30.03.2020 | ||
|Not specified | |Not specified | ||
Revision as of 11:32, 17 April 2020
Epidemiological models
| Authors | Publication date | Geographical region | Type | Description | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dannon et al.[1] | 14.02.2020 | England and Whales | SEIR | Does not take into account mortality. | CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, epidemic peak is predicted in June. |
| Westerhoff and Kolodkin[2] | 30.03.2020 | Not specified | SEIR | Model distinguished between tested and non-testes subjects and takes into consideration adaptive government-induces social distancing policy | Strategies aiming for herd immunity are unacceptable and that a much stronger lockdown is required. Results suggest that the measures taken by many policy makers will be insufficient to quench the epidemic. Some Western policy makers engage in an adaptive lock down strategy but one of insufficient strength: model results suggest that their slowly increasing lock down strategy will not be effective. What is necessary is a strong lock down, which may then be softened as the number of infected individuals begins to decrease with time. |
References
- ↑ Danon L., Brooks-Pollock E., Bailey M., Keeling M. A spatial model of CoVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread and peak timing. medRxiv preprint 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022566
- ↑ Westerhoff H. V., Kolodkin A.N. Advice from a systems-biology model of the Corona epidemics. medRxiv preprint 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.29.20045039
