Covid 19

Epidemiological models

Authors	Publication date	Geographical region	Type	Description	Predictions
Dannon et al.	14.02.2020	England and Whales	SEIR	Does not take into account mortality.	CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, epidemic peak is predicted in June.
Westerhoff and Kolodkin	30.03.2020	Not specified	SEIR	Model distinguished between tested and non-testes subjects and takes into consideration adaptive government-induces social distancing policy	Strategies aiming for herd immunity are unacceptable and that a much stronger lockdown is required. Results suggest that the measures taken by many policy makers will be insufficient to quench the epidemic. Some Western policy makers engage in an adaptive lock down strategy but one of insufficient strength: model results suggest that their slowly increasing lock down strategy will not be effective. What is necessary is a strong lock down, which may then be softened as the number of infected individuals begins to decrease with time.